Forestry and Agriculture Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum

Forum Venue & Hotel Information

This year, The 11th Forum will be held at the Plant Sciences Building on the Centennial Campus of North Carolina State University in Raleigh, North Carolina.

For in-person participants, we have worked with the StateView Hotel on NC State’s campus to align a block of rooms which can be booked at reduced rates. If you would like to participate in the room block, please reserve your room using this link by January 31st: Book your Room. Government employees that would like to request a government-rate room should contact Susan Tyndall, here.

venue

Workshop #11: Moving Forward on Lands-Based Mitigation Challenges and Solutions


Sponsored by: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and co-hosted by North Carolina State University, RTI International, United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Canada, University of Idaho, and SilvaCarbon

Workshop Objectives: (1) Dialogue on key agriculture, forestry, and linked land-use change issues that will dominate upcoming climate change and deep decarbonization policy discussions in North America and internationally; (2) discuss current and future modeling needs in support of climate change policy decisions from an international perspective; (3) explore fundamental uncertainties and challenges that affect most land use models, including historic biophysical and economic uncertainties as well as additional future uncertainties; (4) discuss the results and lessons learned from various intercomparison efforts related to climate change and land use; (5) present key GHG mitigation levers and related policy design issues, and (6) evaluate increased connectivity between land use, water and other resource modeling.

Meetings will be a mix of hybrid participation (meaning in-person and virtual participation) and in-person only, which is noted on each session in the agenda below.

Monday, March 4, 2024
5:00 - 6:30 pm Registration | StateView Hotel
6:30 - 8:00 pm Optional Meet-up | Location TBD
Day 1: Tuesday, March 5, 2024
7:00 - 8:00 am Registration | Location TBD

Shuttle from Hotel to Plant Sciences Building

8:00 - 8:15 am Welcome and Workshop Overview (hybrid) | Location TBD

Organizing Committee

8:15 - 9:00 am Setting the stage (hybrid)
Role of AFOLU in Meeting Decarbonization Goals

Nicklas Forsell • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (confirmed)

AFOLU over time

Brian Murray • Interim Director of the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & sustainability; Duke University

9:00 - 10:30 am Session 1: Policy Perspectives (part 1) (hybrid)
Objective: Presenters will discuss recent efforts to address climate change issues in various policy settings and identify current and future status and modeling needs related to climate, energy, and land use policy issues.

Session Chairs: Sara Ohrel, Elizabeth Marshall, Nicolas Duval-Mace, Ron Sands, Marcela Olguin-Alvarez

U.S.

Bill Hohenstein • Office of the Chief Economist (confirmed)

Canada

Anne-Hélène Mathey • Executive Director, Environment & Climate Policy, Canadian Forest Service-Natural Resources Canada (confirmed, virtual)

Mexico

Abraham Ortinez • General Mitigation Coordinator of the National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC) (confirmed, invited)

Capacity Building

TBD • invited

Comments & Group Discussion
10:30 - 11:00 am Break
11:00 am - 12:30 pm Session 1: Policy Perspectives (part 2) (hybrid)
General Context

Marcela Olguin-Alvarez • Climate Change Unit USFS – SilvaCarbon (confirmed)

UNFCCC perspective on enhancing the use of tools to support the ETF

Kendal Blanco Salas • GHG Support Unit, UNFCCC (confirmed, virtual)

Title

Sandra Bravo • Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, UN (confirmed, virtual)

International Perspective on Forests

Georgina Trujillo • National Forestry Corporation, Chile (confirmed)

International perspective on crops and livestock

TBD

Comments & Group Discussion
12:30 - 1:30 pm Lunch | Main Dining Room
1:30 pm - 4:00 pm Session 2: Model (Methods) Comparison (in-person)
(Break time TBD) Objective: This session will focus on how to create “informative” multi-model comparisons and how to best use the results in the regulatory framework. By focusing on policy-relevant questions, this session will provide a platform for modelers to present current multi-model exercises and future development and for the users of the results (e.g., regulatory community) to discuss alternative options to explain variability and uncertainty across models’ results in framing future policy designs.

Session Chairs: Alice Favero, Liz Marshall, Jeff O’Hara

Moderator: TBD (invited)

EPA Mitigation Report on Land

Sara Ohrel • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (confirmed)

EPA Model Comparison for Biofuels Analysis

Chris Ramig • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (invited)

Forest Model Intercomparison (ForMIP)

Adam Daigneault • University of Maine (confirmed)

AGMIP

Terry Nipp • institution (confirmed)

Comments & Group Discussion
4:15 pm - 5:30 pm Session 3: State of the Art Tools & Challenges (in-person)
Energy Sector Decarbonization Scenarios and Linkages to Land Use Sectors

TBD

CGE Modeling

Ron Sands • USDA-ERS (confirmed)

Uncertainties Associated with Soil Carbon and Crop Modeling

TBD

5:30 pm Day 1 wrap up, shuttles to hotel & eateries (in-person)
6:15 pm Dinner | Location TBD
7:30 pm Informal Discussions
Day 2: Wednesday, March 6, 2024
7:00 - 8:00 am Breakfast and shuttles to Plant Sciences Building
8:00 - 10:30 am Session 3: State of the Art Tools & Challenges (continued) (in-person)
Reconciling Land Use CO2 Fluxes for Assessing Climate Progress

Giacomo Grassi • European Commission, Joint Research Centre (confirmed)

Global Database on Land Opportunity Costs and Drivers of Forest Expansion

Jeff Vincent • Duke Nicholas School of the Environment and Sanford School of Public Policy (confirmed)

Global-Local-Global Analysis of Systems Sustainability Network (GLASSNET)

Tom Hertel • Purdue University (confirmed)

Best Practices and Challenges in the Life Cycle Assessment of Forest Products?

Yuan Yao • Yale School of the Environment (confirmed)

Comments & Group Discussion
10:30 - 11:00 am Break
11:00 am - 12:30 pm Session 4: Mitigation - Forestry (hybrid)
Objective: This panel session will focus on the types of greenhouse gas reduction opportunities that exist for forestry stakeholders in part 1 and agriculture in part 2, the barriers to getting markets for those opportunities off the ground, and how the modeling community can best represent the evolution of these markets in their analyses.

Session Chairs: Greg Latta, Robert Beach, Carolyn Smyth

FASOM Talk

Greg Latta • University of Idaho (confirmed)

Mitigation Opportunities from Post-Fire Salvage

Carolyn Smyth • Canadian Forest Service (confirmed)

Global Climate Policy Impacts on Livestock, Land Use, Livelihoods, and Food Security

Brent Sohngen • Ohio State University (confirmed)

Carbon Impacts of Thinning and Future Wildfires

John Coulston • USFS (confirmed)

Comments & Group Discussion
12:30 - 1:30 pm Lunch | Location
1:30 pm - 3:00 pm Session 4: Mitigation (Part 2) - Agriculture and Bioenergy (hybrid)
GLOBIOM

TBD • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (confirmed)

Emissions Coefficients

Jason Grant • Virgina Tech (confirmed)

Overview of the 2023 Billion-ton Report and the Roads to Removal Report: Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BICRS)

Matthew Langholtz • Oak Ridge National Laboratory (confirmed)

3:00 pm Break
3:00 pm - 4:30 pm Session 4: Mitigation (Part 3) - Private/Voluntary Approaches and Needs (in-person)
Objective: Explore options for management to effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon removals within the forest and agricultural sectors. Long-range assessments continue to indicate the need to build resilience in the face of changing climate and increasing disturbances. This session will focus on modeling of impacts of forestry and agricultural sectors, bringing together biophysical and economic modeling and will discuss natural disturbance management and adaptation solutions. Gain insights into policy-driven research initiatives aimed at fostering a sustainable and resilient future.

Session Chairs: Greg Latta, Robert Beach, Carolyn Smyth

Private sector land sector emissions reduction panel discussion (SBTi)

Martha Stevenson • WWF (confirmed)

Deborah Lawrence • Calyx Global (confirmed)

Spencer Plumb • Senior Manager, Forest Carbon Innovation • Verra (confirmed)

Rishi Das • Head of Forest Carbon Ratings • BeZero (confirmed)

4:30 - 5:15 pm Panel Discussion: GHG modeling needs and quantifying/mitigating risk of reversal
5:15 pm Wrap up & shuttles to hotel & eateries
6:00 pm Dinner | Location TBD
7:30 pm Informal Discussions
Day 3: Thursday, March 7, 2024
7:00 - 8:00 am Breakfast and shuttles to Plant Sciences Building
8:00 - 10:00 am Session 5: Carbon Plus (in-person)
Objective: While the focus on the Forum has traditionally been the application of models to project GHG emissions and carbon sequestration from the land sectors, these models have broad applicability to other pressing societal challenges. The purpose of this session is to present recent advances in modeling to capture the interactions between GHG emissions and carbon sequestration potential from the land use sectors and other policy objectives that could affect land management and related markets. Presentations in this session will highlight state-of-the art modeling to explore interactions, synergies, and tradeoffs between land sector abatement and other policy objectives that align with the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, including enhanced food security and nutrition, water system sustainability, nutrient management, and biodiversity protection. Presentations will offer new insight into scale dependencies in systems modeling, potential interactions between policy goals, and policy design considerations.

Session Chairs: Justin Baker, Sara Ohrel

Integrated Assessment Modeling at the Nexus of Climate Change, International Trade, and Water Quality Management

Maridee Weber • Joint Global Change Research Institute (confirmed)

The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land Use and bioEnergy (FABLE) Consortium: Reconciling sustainable land use pathways across national and global scales

Aline Mosnier • UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (confirmed)

Sustainable Phosphorus Futures and Tradeoffs Across C, N, and P Policy Objectives – Global-to-Regional Scale Considerations

Justin Baker • NC State University (confirmed)

Comments & Group Discussion
10:00 - 10:30 am Break
10:30 am - 11:30 am Session 5: Carbon Plus (Continued) (hybrid)
Tradeoffs and Synergies Between Healthire Diet Transitions, Alternative Proteins,and GHG Policy

Mario Herrero • Cornell University (confirmed)

Comments & Group Discussion
11:30 - 12:00 pm Wrap up Discussion - Workshop Review & Conclusion
Departure times TBD per participant needs Shuttle departs for RDU Airport